Monday, June 16, 2008

Bill Bavasi Fired! "And There Was Much Rejoicing."

As loyal readers of the blog know, I have a very passionate dislike for Bill Bavasi. So when I heard rumors that he was to be fired after the Mariners were swept at home by the worst team in the National League, I was giddy with anticipation. "Could this possibly be true?" I wondered. "Or is it just another cruel trick?" Minutes later it was confirmed Bavasi's horrible regime was brought to an end. Time to use out tanks to tear down those giant bronze Bavasi statues he had erected around Safeco field.

Tons has been written about why Bill Bavasi was one of the worst GM's in the league. Much of it by me. Often ranting against this evil tyrant as I saw him turn my childhood team into a mockery of sport. But most of what I wrote was from an emotional level with a few examples thrown in in attempts to make my point. But to truly grasps why Bill Bavasi is like the Neil Young song "The Needle and The Damage Done" you should read this well thought out post on BaseballAnalysts.com by Dave of USSM fame, entitled Mariners Foibles.

I am extremely excited about this move, as one might imagine. A chance at a new beginning for everyone is exactly what this organization needs. The New GM, when hired, will bring in his own coaching staff and we will finally be rid of John McLaren, his insipid explanations/rationalizations, terrible in game strategy and shameful lineup construction.

At the same time my head is soaring in the clouds like I just re-lost my virginity, my heart is gripped with a very real and tangible fear. That fear is this, the person who is hired in the off-season to replace Bavasi will be only a slightly marked improvement and will be in the same "old school baseball" mindset, only paying lip service to the proven tools of statistical analysis.

Let us not forget that the root of the evil that plagued this ball club remains intact, Chuck Armstrong and Howard Lincoln. These are the two people that hired Bavasi in the first place.

When Pat Gillick left the team after the '03 season Armstrong and Lincoln presided over the search and hiring of the next man to run this team. Out of all the many qualified GM's, many who have gone on to be successful elsewhere, these two chose Bavasi to be their man.

Nothing in the 5 years since that point has shown me, a dyed in the wool M's fan, that the mindset that led the Front Office to hire Bavasi, has changed in the least. Or that the abuse my beloved franchise has gone through these past years will end anytime soon.

The FO still talks to their fans like they believe that the fans feeble minds cannot truly grasps the will of God. That the moves they make in order to "better" the team, while seems odd and obtuse to the casual fan, would be made perfectly clear if the fans had the "baseball knowledge" and resources the FO does. And this type of talking down to the fan base infuriates me to no end.

I have followed the M's since The Kid was just a kid, fresh out of high school. Not the future first ballot Hall of Famer who just hit 600. Most of my life of watching the M's I was a casual observer, stuck in the old baseball modes, it was all I had ever known. Years later I would read a little book called Moneyball, in which the author lays out how A's GM Billy Beane fields a competitive team year in and year out on a minuscule budget. I saw then, the cracks in the Mariners facade, but did not fully grasps how deep those cracks went.

A couple years after that I was introduced, by a friend, to UssMariner.com. A Mariners website with a Moneyball-ish bent. It was here that I was shown all that truly plagued the team, not the crap like chemistry and grit that the local beat writers loved spewing on about.

I can see clearly now that if there is any hope that the fortunes of my team to be turned around that it must start at the top. That change could come in the form of a change of heart/mindset in the FO, but a complete 180 degrees change in terms of thought processes are rare. The more likely way to attain this change would be a cleaning of the house.

Short of one of those two events taking place it is hard for me to see a true change coming. I hope so very much that by some stroke of fate that the FO goes with the change of heart. That they now see we live in the 21st century. And that people who use the many statistical tools to help guide decisions do so not because they seek to rip the soul and mystique out of the game but because time and again this tools have been proven highly effective.

If they embrace this forward thinking approach to the game I will be the happiest man alive. Then I can openly root for this team without fear that their success only emboldens poor decision making, something I long to do so very much. Sadly, I worry that this will not be the case and in 5 years from now I will be writing about the sorry state the team is in, still. Please, Chuck and Howie, prove me wrong. I will love you for it.

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